Has anyone else stopped and thought how it’s slightly odd that Orange County, California became a sleepier, suburban, family-oriented area, in stark contrast to how the west side of Los Angeles and even Malibu developed? Seems like some low-hanging fruit for some alternate history, especially considering as late as 1900 the vast majority of what’s now Greater Los Angeles was either agricultural country or just flat-out undeveloped. I’ve written before about how Greater Nashville is a surprisingly recent place, full of alternate-historical what-ifs, and that goes double for a southwestern megacity like LA.
How Orange County was made…and how it could have been made differently…
ChatGPT, for its part, speculates that Orange County, compared to Santa Monica Bay, was originally more agricultural, and thus enjoyed a slower and more community-oriented sort of growth, freeway connections to what was then rural regions with wide-open land and desirable climate facilitating suburban sprawl, reinforcing its role as a bedroom community, especially since so much of it was developed after World War II (all those spawners of the baby boom had to live somewhere…). Master-planned communities, of which Irvine is the supreme prototype, only served to reinforce this trend, as they catered to more or less the same demographics which were pouring into Orange County in that era.
How could it have been different? ChatGPT speculates that a heavier military industry presence, similar to what was built up around World War II in Long Beach and parts of Los Angeles, could have lent Orange County a more dense worker-housing sort of feel to it, with potentially more urban character and diversity of population and culture. Perhaps more akin to El Segundo writ large, as creepy and weird as that possibility might sound… (hey, at least it’d be different!)
Other possibilities were raised that don’t sound promising or realistic, such as LA annexing the region early on, but there was one that really piqued my interest: the development of coastal Orange County as a series of resort towns, similar to how Santa Monica and Malibu were built out, spurring a more upscale, urbanized, and tourist-driven economy, drawing a wealthier and more cosmopolitan demographic. Now we’re talking!
Another intriguing possibility is some part of Orange County becoming a rail hub similar to Pasadena, spurring denser and more classically urban styles of development, complete with streetcars. Pasadena, of course, is helped a lot by the fact Caltech is located there…but who’s to say that a similar institution couldn’t have been established near, say, what’s now Irvine, and what was back in the good old days the Irvine Ranch? That’s a really interesting possibility.
As ChatGPT puts it, “Caltech, founded in the early 20th century, attracted a community of scientists, engineers, and affluent individuals, which contributed to Pasadena’s growth as an intellectual and cultural hub; this influence helped shape the city’s identity as a more urban, culturally rich area with an emphasis on education and research, in contrast to the suburban sprawl seen in other parts of Southern California”. Ooh…
In this scenario we have Silicon Beach sprawling far southward along the coast, its bones consisting of a string of resort towns similar to what you see in the Santa Monica Bay today. But unless we’re talking about giving over what’s now Camp Pendleton to development (which honestly should be done anyway) this only reconfigures the existing urban area, rather than expanding it.
Changing the shape of Metropolitan Los Angeles…
What if the Westside-Malibu axis of development spread much further westward, following Highway 101 through Ventura County along the southward-facing beaches clear to the Gaviota Coast, ending at Conception Point, where the coast turns northward? The entire area is geographically and climatologically similar to Malibu, and even now enjoys good highway connections, so it’s odd that development just…stops, well short of where it should. That was a deliberate political choice to keep it undeveloped, but I might point out that in some other timeline it might easily have been different.
Early highway and railway development, an early series of resort towns (once again), and the influence of prestigious Hollywood types investing in property further north up the coast rather than inland or in the Los Angeles area itself, and the place could have exploded before environmentalism was a gleam in Rachel Carson’s eye. High-tech industries booming and adventuresome real estate developers seeing potential in extending the same development pattern then new in Malibu further along the highway could easily have accelerated things along even further.
In the alternate timeline I write my stories in, all of these factors are present which drive coastal development: more highways, more railways, more high-tech industry, and zoning laws and environmental regulations that are more amenable to development being built out. Hollywood, along with the arts and entertainment industry, is an even bigger deal than in real life, and infrastructure is quickly upgraded: high-speed rail that pushes supersonic speeds and 200 mph free-flowing freeways are the norm by the end of the 20th century, making getting around very easy even across great distances. The appetite for suburban sprawl is so ravenous it transforms into outright rural sprawl, pushing development projects further and further out along the coast…and courtesy of the booming economy there’s no shortage of capital to sink into building out master-planned communities.
Which leaves open the question of what, after Malibu’s development is largely finished, the Gaviota Coast and Ventura County would even look like in such a timeline. The most obvious possibility would be master-planned but relatively dense coastal resort communities that are luxurious but not quite as upscale as Malibu; think the selling point being that they’re more affordable. Effectively this would cause LA’s urban development to leapfrog over Malibu, leaving it something like a leafy old-money enclave within what would be a more developed general area, similar to what’s often seen in many parts of the eastern United States. A contrast might emerge between a private and exclusive Malibu and a dynamic and diverse Gaviota.
It’s entirely possible this development would have just made Greater Los Angeles bigger in population and size, but another, or possibly adjunct, possibility would be this growth up the coast coming at the expense of the Inland Empire.
The only reason the San Bernardino Valley is as popular as it is is because it was a place close to Los Angeles that people could actually afford to own a home in that wasn’t way out in the desert; if most of the original residents of these suburbs could have lived on the coast, they probably would have. San Bernardino, therefore, might have been a less populated, less developed, less suburban, and more rural and agricultural place still to this day. Orange County even might have been built up much slower, particularly the parts of it that are further inland, retaining more of the namesake orange groves.
Places like Newport Beach and Laguna Beach might have seen more boutique style resort communities or small artsy enclaves. As ChatGPT puts it, “With less competition from the Inland Empire or northern coastal communities, they might have remained exclusive yet more affordable alternatives to Malibu, attracting artists, writers, and the like.”
Most intriguingly of all perhaps, “Orange County might have found its niche in more specialized markets—perhaps as a region known for its equestrian lifestyle, boutique farming, or eco-tourism, drawing those looking for a rural or semi-rural lifestyle within reach of the coast and Los Angeles”. I say intriguing because this would be a parallel in my timeline to how Williamson County, Tennessee retained its rural character and developed as more of an equestrian hub, the axis of Nashville’s sprawl instead being more concentrated toward Rutherford County (i.e. Murfreesboro, by way of the airports). Much like how the axis of LA’s sprawl shifts toward the beaches!
Considering both Williamson and Orange Counties are today hubs of family-oriented sleepy suburbia it’s rather eerie. But then again in my timeline it’s entirely possible that these sort of places aren’t nearly as prominent or popular as they are in real life; there was never any baby boom, a lot more people are single rather than married, and in any case suburban sprawl mutates into rural sprawl, largely bypassing the tract-homes-stuffed-like-sardines style that creates the homogeneous developments that cover so much of metropolitan America today. Instead it’s more dispersed, and, ironically enough, diverse.
This is doubly reinforced by the marquee suburban sprawl developments they did have originally being characterized by mixed-use developments on gridded street plans, rather than street hierarchies with Euclidean zoning, a concept that never really takes off in this universe (indeed, utilitarian spaces seem to be trendy; even home interiors are rather multi-purpose and flexible).
On the flip side, global trade and commerce absolutely explode due to the global economy, so places like the San Bernardino Valley, which are located next to vital transportation junctions, might still boom…but as vast warehouses that serve as worksites for relatively few people overseeing hordes of robots, their bustling activity spreading from one end of the basin to the other, along corridors and junctions, interspersed between fields, orchards, and ranches. Rather like the sort of economy you see in the original “Thunderbirds” TV show, actually.
But most of the activity involving actual people would be concentrated much more heavily on the coast. As ChatGPT puts it, “With more options for coastal living, Southern California might have seen a greater emphasis on maritime culture, beach-oriented lifestyles, and tourism, with less emphasis on the sprawling inland suburbs that characterize the region today.” Sounds rather nice, actually.
Ventura and Santa Barbara would be much larger hubs than they are today, with the Gaviota Coast becoming a hub unto itself. The area now dominated by the Vandenberg base might become as popular as Palos Verdes is today: 270-degree ocean views…
An Axis of Development: beyond Conception Point
Even more radically, at this point in the region’s history, Big Sur beckons: what if coastal development extends into what’s now the most pristine and heavily regulated part of the entire coastline? It wasn’t so restricted before the 1960s and even later, so if this turn in politics never occurs, or if the place could have been developed already at a much earlier date, we could be looking at a very different California.
As ChatGPT puts it, “The rugged beauty of Big Sur would have made it an ideal location for high-end resorts, drawing visitors from across the country and around the world. These resorts might have catered to the affluent, offering a mix of natural beauty and luxury similar to that of places like Aspen or the Hamptons”, going on to say “Developers could have built gated communities with custom homes perched on cliffs overlooking the Pacific, marketed as exclusive retreats for the wealthy. These communities would likely have maintained a low density but with significant luxury and privacy, perhaps with private beach access, golf courses, and other amenities.”
Think the sort of pattern of development you see in Pebble Beach and Carmel, i.e. the Carmel Bay area much further north, which geographically is pretty much part of Big Sur, but just happened to be developed much earlier (Pebble Beach was starting to be developed as early as the 1890s…).
Big Sur is a formidable place to connect with infrastructure, so a more robust version of the Pacific Coast Highway, plus perhaps multiple parallel roads and a high-speed railroad would have been necessary; the earlier, the better. Fortunately the powers-that-be in my alternate timeline are highway- and railway-crazy, so that helps a lot. Capital is abundant due to the booming economy, so the cost of a pleasure route hugging the most rugged terrain on the Pacific Coast is considered no big deal (the Lost Coast much further north would likely also have a coast road in this timeline, by the way, rather than having been bypassed).
Later on tunnel-building appetite is far greater, meaning Big Sur will enjoy robust connections with the interior as well (this is also the case in Oregon, hence why Coos Bay explodes as a city later on in this timeline).
In the case of Big Sur, its rugged natural beauty will attract bohemian artist types, likely in much greater numbers than in real life (certainly more of them will be able to actually live there than in real life…), but also in this timeline a lot of luxury tourist types would be joining the creatives, leading to some rather interesting dynamics. The place could sport an enormous hospitality industry, offering cultural events, festivals, and retreats in abundance; even vineyards might become steadily more common on those fog-shrouded slopes.
Monterey and Carmel could have become real hubs instead of being little worlds unto themselves, with a string of resort communities connecting the entire central coast into one contiguous urbanized corridor. Perhaps one that’s gorgeous and in harmony with the natural environment, but it would be a vastly different sort of place…one that could smoothly connect Greater Los Angeles and the Bay Area into a true megalopolis, which also would extend into San Diego…and perhaps beyond, into Tijuana and deep into Baja California (this would be helped along by a more open border…which is also a condition my timeline fulfills!).
With the precedent set of the coast being developed into luxury resort towns as the norm, the same pattern could even extend much further north, eventually perhaps covering the whole state, linking a string of communities via highway and railway into the Oregon Coast. The human geography of the Lost Coast in particular would be unrecognizable from real life…
Core South Coast areas might see less development pressure, with instead the urbanism being spread more evenly across a vast area that extends far to the north. Orange County and the Inland Empire might have remained even more rural and undeveloped than hitherto discussed, with so much of the pioneering suburban residents in real life instead choosing to pioneer Big Sur.
Moving Forward toward…What?
It’s only really hinted at in my stories that just this sort of development has transpired in my alternate timeline, but it so, so would be a fascinating scenario to explore much more deeply. Perhaps someday I will: a version of California that is, as with many of my imaginings, much muchier than the “real thing”…